Comparing Physics Scheme Performance for a Lake Effect Snowfall Event in Northern Lower Michigan

High resolution forecast models, such as those used to predict severe convective storms, can also be applied to predictions of lake effect snowfall. A high resolution WRF model forecast model is provided to support operations at NWS WFO Gaylord, Michigan, using a 12 ]km and 4 ]km nested configuration. This is comparable to the simulations performed by other NWS WFOs adjacent to the Great Lakes, including offices in the NWS Eastern Region who participate in regional ensemble efforts. Ensemble efforts require diversity in initial conditions and physics configurations to emulate the plausible range of events in order to ascertain the likelihood of different forecast scenarios. In addition to providing probabilistic guidance, individual members can be evaluated to determine whether they appear to be biased in some way, or to better understand how certain physics configurations may impact the resulting forecast. On January 20 ]21, 2011, a lake effect snow event occurred in Northern Lower Michigan, with cooperative observing and CoCoRaHS stations reporting new snow accumulations between 2 and 8 inches and liquid equivalents of 0.1 ]0.25 h. The event of January 21, 2011 was particularly well observed, with numerous surface reports available. It was also well represented by the WRF configuration operated at NWS Gaylord. Given that the default configuration produced a reasonable prediction, it is used here to evaluate the impacts of other physics configurations on the resulting prediction of the primary lake effect band and resulting QPF. Emphasis here is on differences in planetary boundary layer and cloud microphysics parameterizations, given their likely role in determining the evolution of shallow convection and precipitation processes. Results from an ensemble of seven microphysics schemes and three planetary boundary layer schemes are presented to demonstrate variability in forecast evolution, with results used in an attempt to improve the forecasts in the 2011 ]2012 lake effect season

Calcium Oxalate Crystal Production in Two Members of the Mucorales

Calcium oxalate crystals are found in association with the sporangia of Mucor hiemalis and Rhizopus oryzae. Crystals observed in each species vary in morphology from simple crystals consisting of single spines in M. hiemalis to complex crystals with twin spines, sometimes three-parted, on a common base in R. oryzae. The early development of the crystals is similar in both species with a layer of the cell wall covering in the initial crystals. The spines of M. hiemalis rapidly emerge while the crystals of R. oryzae appear to remain covered with a layer of outer wall material. The crystals of both species become fully developed just prior to spore release. Details of crystal development are compared and possible mechanisms for crystal development are explored

Morphology and Formation of an Holocene Coastal Dune Field, Bruce Peninsula, Ontario

This paper describes a dune field on the gently-sloping Lake Huron shoreline of the Bruce Peninsula, Ontario. The inland boundary is marked by a prominent dune ridge 60 m wide and up to 30 m high, which extends parallel to the shoreline for about 19 km, and was formed about 5000 years BP near the end of the Nipissing transgression. The islands and rock reefs which protect the modern shoreline were submerged under the higher lake levels, giving rise to a relatively straight, exposed beach from which sediment was supplied for building the dune ridge. Dunes formed between this ridge and the modern shoreline during the post-Nipissing regression decrease in height and continuity, reflecting decreased sediment supply associated with regression and reduced wave exposure as the offshore islands emerged. The sequence described here supports previous conclusions that transgressions are associated with periods of coastal dune formation and instability.On fait ici la description d'un champ de dunes situé sur le rivage faiblement incliné de la péninsule de Bruce, au lac Huron. La limite intérieure est caractérisée par une chaîne de dunes de 60 m de large et jusqu'à 30 m de haut qui s'étend parallèlement au rivage sur une longueur de 19 km; elle a été formée il y a 5000 ans BP, presque la fin de la transgression de Nipissing. Les îles et les écueils rocheux qui protègent le rivage actuel étaient alors immergés sous des niveaux lacustres supérieurs, permettant ainsi la formation d'une plage découverte relativement rectiligne qui a fourni le sable nécessaire à l'édification de la chaîne de dunes. La formation, au cours de la régression post-Nipissing, de dunes moins hautes et plus dispersées, entre la chaîne de dunes et le rivage actuel, témoigne d'une faible alimentation en sédiments associée à la régression et d'une moindre exposition aux vagues en raison de l'émersion des îles. La séquence décrite ici corroborent les conclusions antérieures selon lesquelles les transgressions correspondent à des périodes de formation et d'instabilité des dunes littorales.Dieser Aufsatz beschreibt ein Dùnenfeld, das am schwach abfallenden Ufer des Huron-Sees, Bruce-Halbinsel liegt. Die Grenze zum Landinnern ist hervorgehoben durch eine Kette von Dunen, die 60 m breit und bis zu 30 m hoch sind, und die sich parallel zum Ufer ùber eine Lange von 19 km ausdehnt; sie wurde vor 5000 Jahren v.u.Z. gebildet, fast am Ende der Transgression von Nipissing. Die Insein und die Felsklippen, die das heutige Ufer schùtzen, waren damais unter den hôheren Seen-Niveaus untergetaucht, so dass ein offener, relativ gerader Strand entstehen konnte, der den fur den Aufbau der Dunenkette notwendigen Sand lieferte. Wàhrend der Regression post-Nipissing haben sich zwischen der Dunenkette und dem heutigen Uferweniger hohe und mehr verstreute Dùnen gebildet, welche Zeugnis von einer schwachen Sediment-Zufuhr abgeben, in Verbindung mit der Regression und einem geringeren Einfluss der Wellen wegen des Auftauchens der Insein. Die hier beschriebene Sequenz bestàtigt frùhere Schlussfolgerungen. denen zufolge die Transgressionen mit Perioden der Bildung und Instabilitàt von Kùstendùnen in Verbindung gebracht werden

Exploring legal restrictions, regulatory reform, and geographic disparities in abortion access in Thailand

Despite decades of advocacy among Thai governmental and nongovernmental actors to remove abortion from the country’s 1957 Criminal Code, this medically necessary service remains significantly legally restricted. In 2005, in the most recent regulatory reform to date, the Thai Medical Council established regulatory measures to allow a degree of physician interpretation within the confines of the existing law. Drawing on findings from a review of institutional policies and legislative materials, key informant interviews, and informal discussions with health service providers, government representatives, and nonprofit stakeholders, this article explores how legal reforms and health policies have shaped the abortion landscape in Thailand and influenced geographic disparities in availability and accessibility. Notwithstanding a strong medical community and the recent introduction of mifepristone for medication abortion (also known as medical abortion), the narrow interpretation of the regulatory criteria by physicians further entrenches these disparities. This article examines the causes of subnational disparities, focusing on the northern provinces and the western periphery of Thailand, and explores strategies to improve access to abortion in this legally restricted setting

In situ aerosol optics in Reno, NV, USA during and after the summer 2008 California wildfires and the influence of absorbing and non-absorbing organic coatings on spectral light absorption

Hundreds of wildfires in Northern California were sparked by lightning during the summer of 2008, resulting in downwind smoke for the months of June and July. Comparisons are reported for aerosol optics measurements in Reno, Nevada made during the very smoky month of July and the relatively clean month of August. Photoacoustic instruments equipped with integrating nephelometers were used to measure aerosol light scattering and absorption coefficients at wavelengths of 405 nm and 870 nm, revealing a strong variation of aerosol light absorption with wavelength. Insight on fuels burned is gleaned from comparison of Ångström exponents of absorption (AEA) versus single scattering albedo (SSA) of the ambient measurements with laboratory biomass smoke measurements for many fuels. Measurements during the month of August, which were largely unaffected by fire smoke, exhibit surprisingly low AEA for aerosol light absorption when the SSA is highest, again likely as a consequence of the underappreciated wavelength dependence of aerosol light absorption by particles coated with non-absorbing organic and inorganic matter. Coated sphere calculations were used to show that AEA as large as 1.6 are possible for wood smoke even with non-absorbing organic coatings on black carbon cores, suggesting care be exercised when diagnosing AEA

A Jus Post Bellum Analysis of Lethal Autonomous Weapons: Assessing the Importance of Human Interaction and Moral Repair to Peace

The future development of lethal autonomous weapons (LAWs) presents a significant shift in the way that war is conducted. The present debates surrounding the ethicality of implementing LAWs focus on a broad spectrum of concerns, yet currently fails to address the impact these weapons have on securing peace. As such, this paper rests within a jus post bellum framework, seeking to address how the implementation of LAWs affects the procurement of peace. This paper looks at the relational mechanisms of achieving peace, insofar as it is a product of human interaction and relational processes, and settles on two themes; the factors within war related to human action and interaction – collective experience, recognition of humanity, and the exhibition of mercy – and the factors after war related to moral repair –forgiveness, reconciliation, and truth telling. Through historical examples of human interaction, and a normative enquiry into the demands of repair, this paper finds that LAWs have a detrimental effect on the current methods of securing peace insofar as they are incapable of replicating avenues which humans currently participate in. As such, this paper highlights the trade-off between measures to prevent suffering and the necessity of moral repair, and contributes to the literature on jus post bellum more broadly by demonstrating the importance of repair post-conflict which has thus far been omitted

Integrating personality research and animal contest theory: aggressiveness in the green swordtail <i>Xiphophorus helleri</i>

&lt;p&gt;Aggression occurs when individuals compete over limiting resources. While theoretical studies have long placed a strong emphasis on context-specificity of aggression, there is increasing recognition that consistent behavioural differences exist among individuals, and that aggressiveness may be an important component of individual personality. Though empirical studies tend to focus on one aspect or the other, we suggest there is merit in modelling both within-and among-individual variation in agonistic behaviour simultaneously. Here, we demonstrate how this can be achieved using multivariate linear mixed effect models. Using data from repeated mirror trials and dyadic interactions of male green swordtails, &lt;i&gt;Xiphophorus helleri&lt;/i&gt;, we show repeatable components of (co)variation in a suite of agonistic behaviour that is broadly consistent with a major axis of variation in aggressiveness. We also show that observed focal behaviour is dependent on opponent effects, which can themselves be repeatable but were more generally found to be context specific. In particular, our models show that within-individual variation in agonistic behaviour is explained, at least in part, by the relative size of a live opponent as predicted by contest theory. Finally, we suggest several additional applications of the multivariate models demonstrated here. These include testing the recently queried functional equivalence of alternative experimental approaches, (e. g., mirror trials, dyadic interaction tests) for assaying individual aggressiveness.&lt;/p&gt

ADRIC: Adverse Drug Reactions In Children - a programme of research using mixed methods

Aims To comprehensively investigate the incidence, nature and risk factors of adverse drug reactions (ADRs) in a hospital-based population of children, with rigorous assessment of causality, severity and avoidability, and to assess the consequent impact on children and families. We aimed to improve the assessment of ADRs by development of new tools to assess causality and avoidability, and to minimise the impact on families by developing better strategies for communication. Review methods Two prospective observational studies, each over 1 year, were conducted to assess ADRs in children associated with admission to hospital, and those occurring in children who were in hospital for longer than 48 hours. We conducted a comprehensive systematic review of ADRs in children. We used the findings from these studies to develop and validate tools to assess causality and avoidability of ADRs, and conducted interviews with parents and children who had experienced ADRs, using these findings to develop a leaflet for parents to inform a communication strategy about ADRs. Results The estimated incidence of ADRs detected in children on admission to hospital was 2.9% [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.5% to 3.3%]. Of the reactions, 22.1% (95% CI 17% to 28%) were either definitely or possibly avoidable. Prescriptions originating in the community accounted for 44 out of 249 (17.7%) of ADRs, the remainder originating from hospital. A total of 120 out of 249 (48.2%) reactions resulted from treatment for malignancies. Off-label and/or unlicensed (OLUL) medicines were more likely to be implicated in an ADR than authorised medicines [relative risk (RR) 1.67, 95% CI 1.38 to 2.02; p  48 hours, the overall incidence of definite and probable ADRs based on all admissions was 15.9% (95% CI 15.0 to 16.8). Opiate analgesic drugs and drugs used in general anaesthesia (GA) accounted for > 50% of all drugs implicated in ADRs. The odds ratio of an OLUL drug being implicated in an ADR compared with an authorised drug was 2.25 (95% CI 1.95 to 2.59; p < 0.001). Risk factors identified were exposure to a GA, age, oncology treatment and number of medicines. The systematic review estimated that the incidence rates for ADRs causing hospital admission ranged from 0.4% to 10.3% of all children [pooled estimate of 2.9% (95% CI 2.6% to 3.1%)] and from 0.6% to 16.8% of all children exposed to a drug during hospital stay. New tools to assess causality and avoidability of ADRs have been developed and validated. Many parents described being dissatisfied with clinician communication about ADRs, whereas parents of children with cancer emphasised confidence in clinician management of ADRs and the way clinicians communicated about medicines. The accounts of children and young people largely reflected parents’ accounts. Clinicians described using all of the features of communication that parents wanted to see, but made active decisions about when and what to communicate to families about suspected ADRs, which meant that communication may not always match families’ needs and expectations. We developed a leaflet to assist clinicians in communicating ADRs to parents. Conclusion The Adverse Drug Reactions In Children (ADRIC) programme has provided the most comprehensive assessment, to date, of the size and nature of ADRs in children presenting to, and cared for in, hospital, and the outputs that have resulted will improve the management and understanding of ADRs in children and adults within the NHS. Recommendations for future research: assess the values that parents and children place on the use of different medicines and the risks that they will find acceptable within these contexts; focusing on high-risk drugs identified in ADRIC, determine the optimum drug dose for children through the development of a gold standard practice for the extrapolation of adult drug doses, alongside targeted pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic studies; assess the research and clinical applications of the Liverpool Causality Assessment Tool and the Liverpool Avoidability Assessment Tool; evaluate, in more detail, morbidities associated with anaesthesia and surgery in children, including follow-up in the community and in the home setting and an assessment of the most appropriate treatment regimens to prevent pain, vomiting and other postoperative complications; further evaluate strategies for communication with families, children and young people about ADRs; and quantify ADRs in other settings, for example critical care and neonatology